France vs USA Odds, Picks & Predictions – Olympic Men’s Basketball Game (2024)

The gold medal game in Olympic men’s basketball is set, and it has a lot to live up to after two incredible semifinal matchups.

France put together a gutsy performance to top reigning World Cup champion Germany. As a result, France becomes the first host nation to make the gold medal game in basketball since 1996.

Meanwhile, Team USA finally got tested. They were down double-digits against Serbia almost the entire game until a masterclass quarter by Steph Curry, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant saw them prevail despite trailing by 13 in the fourth.

My France vs. USA predictions for the gold medal game take a look at why Victor Wembanyama hasn’t been producing on offense.

France vs USA prediction

My best bet
Victor Wembanyama Under 16.5 points (-102)

My analysis

I have been skeptical about France for two straight games, and they have proven me wrong with convincing wins over Canada and Germany.

Their offense has looked night-and-day better since they benched Rudy Gobert in favor of Victor Wembanyama, with their more offensive-minded bigs like Gerson Yabusale leveraging their size to do serious damage. Wemby, in turn, has been a defensive monster while providing spacing, allowing his teammates to attack inside.

Despite all those things trending in favor of France, Wembanyama hasn’t been producing points. His role in the offense has allowed France to thrive and score, but his own production and efficiency have not been strong.

Wemby is down to just 37.5% shooting overall in the Olympics and a grisly 26.7% from deep. As a result, Wemby is averaging 13.8 points per game in the tournament. Despite this, his points prop has come in at 16.5 with negligible juice on the Under.

Wemby’s difficulties could be due to the taxing work that he’s being forced to do on the defensive end. While Victor entered the tournament playing as part of a rim-protecting duo with Gobert, Rudy has now been pushed out of the lineup almost entirely. The result is that France has flourished overall, but Wemby’s responsibilities — and energy expended — have massively grown on both ends.

I don’t expect it to get easier for Wemby on Saturday. Victor has been struggling to score against far inferior defenders than the ones he’ll match up with against Team USA.

Anthony Davis is an outstanding defensive option against Victor, as is Bam Adebayo. If Wembanyama is playing a traditional center role, it doesn’t get much harder to move a player on the block than trying to go through Joel Embiid.

LeBron James also showed in the game against Serbia that he still has it within himself to guard the opposing team’s best player on a switch when it’s winning time, as he took blow after blow in the chest guarding Jokic in the post.

Guarding Wembanyama, for as skilled as he is, will be nowhere near as taxing if it comes to that, and James will have the strength and experience advantage over the French phenom.

Embiid’s pièce de résistance

My Joel Embiid prop: Over 12.5 points (-113)

While it was Steph Curry and LeBron James who carried much of the load for Team USA — and Kevin Durant who hit the dagger to end all doubt — the Americans would have been lost if not for the efforts of Joel Embiid.

Embiid finally had his breakout game against Serbia and Nikola Jokic, his biggest rival. It was arguably — given the stakes — the biggest moment of his career, which is saying something for a perennial MVP candidate.

While past play doesn’t necessarily predict future performance, in this case, I think there will be follow through. Joel is going to be highly motivated against France, as they have been booing him relentlessly all tournament long, and Embiid has been giving it right back to the fans in turn. Embiid picked his Olympic squad like a free agent and spurned playing for France despite being fast-tracked a French passport.

Teams this good need a rallying point, and putting Embiid in position to dominate will be front of mind for many United States players.

What makes me even more confident is that Embiid’s game against Serbia wasn’t perfect. He still got caught baiting for fouls a couple of times and calls did not go his way. But instead of hanging his head, he went about his business and dominated inside, scoring around the rim, but mostly as the elite shooter that he is.

And it’s the jump shot that makes him so hard to guard, both overall and against defenders like Wemby or Gobert.

France vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)

Victor Wembanyama Under 16.5 points

Joel Embiid Over 12.5 points

Anthony Edwards Over 9.5 points

+504

While it was the starters that got it done against Serbia, for most of the Olympics it has been the bench who have done the lion’s share of work building leads for Team USA. But they struggled mightily on Thursday, nobody perhaps more so than Anthony Edwards.

Edwards had been leading the team in points per game despite coming off the bench, but all of his worst tendencies emerged in the pressure cooker of a game that was the semifinal. He was shooting too much, turning the ball over, losing his man on defense, and generally looked like he was trying to win the game by himself. That’s why his points prop has dipped below double-digits here.

But Edwards has scored 11 or better in every other game in the tournament. He’s averaging 13.8 points despite his two-point dud against Serbia and I think despite the stakes, there’s every chance that he’ll sub into the game playing with a lead instead of trying to rally from down double-digits.

France doesn’t have the shooting to go toe-to-toe with USA the way that Serbia did. And while Victor might one day be a passing and scoring threat that forces teams to collapse like a dying neutron star the way Jokic does, he’s not there yet. I don’t expect France to test Team USA the same way, and that means Steve Kerr should return to his previous rotations where Ant was a featured scorer.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

France vs USA odds

FranceUSA
+16 (-110)Spread-16 (-110)
+1,100Moneyline-2,200
Over 176.5 (-110)TotalUnder 176.5 (-110)

Odds as of 8-9.

France vs USA game info

Location:Bercy Arena, Paris, France
Date:Saturday, 8-10-2024
Tip-off:3:30 p.m. ET
TV:NBC

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France vs USA Odds, Picks & Predictions – Olympic Men’s Basketball Game (2024)

FAQs

France vs USA Odds, Picks & Predictions – Olympic Men’s Basketball Game? ›

The United States is a 16.5-point favorite in the latest Team USA vs. France odds. The over/under for total points is 174.5.

Did France win basketball Olympics? ›

Team USA won its eighth straight Olympic gold medal in a row after beating France 67-66 in a pulsating final at the Bercy Arena on Sunday, 11 August. The win for establishes the U.S. as the best dynasty in team sports in the Olympics.

Did USA win men's basketball? ›

Basketball: USA win men's gold, beating France 98-87.

How often does USA win basketball Olympics? ›

It is the most successful team in international competition, winning medals in all twenty Olympic tournaments it has entered, including seventeen golds. In the professional era, the team has won the Olympic gold medal in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024.

Is France good at the Olympics? ›

One week into the Paris Games, France has won eight golds and 28 medals in total. Since Atlanta in 1996, France has averaged 37 medals per Olympics, a Reuters calculation shows. France's early improvement is the fruit of a seven-year plan that it hopes will position it as a long-term Olympics heavyweight.

Who won USA vs France Olympics? ›

USA vs France basketball highlights: US wins 8th straight Olympic gold.

Has USA Basketball ever not won gold? ›

Let's relive how the basketball tournaments played out in Paris: The U.S. men have claimed gold in every Olympics since 2008, and now have 17 championships overall.

Who was the MVP of Olympic basketball? ›

FIBA Summer Olympics MVPs
YearPlayerPosition
2004Manu Ginóbili*SG
2020Kevin DurantPF
2024LeBron JamesSF

What country won the basketball Olympics? ›

The U.S. is atop the international men's basketball world once again, after Curry scored 24 points and led the way to a 98-87 win over France in the final at the Paris Games on Saturday night.

What country has the most gold medals in basketball? ›

The United States is by far the most successful country in full-court Olympic basketball, with United States men's teams having won 17 of 20 tournaments in which they participated, including seven consecutive titles from 1936 through 1968.

When did USA lose gold medal in basketball? ›

U.S. women's basketball team wins eighth straight Olympic gold medal The United States struggled most of the game against a tenacious French team that was powered by a boisterous home crowd. The U.S. women's basketball team has not lost at the Olympics since 1992.

Who has the most points in the Olympic basketball game? ›

Anthony has since been passed by James and/or Durant in most team records he once held, including gold medals (Durant now has four). He still holds the single-game scoring record, however, though Steph Curry came close with a 36-point performance in the 2024 Paris semifinals against Serbia.

Who won 2008 NBA Olympics? ›

The United States, nicknamed the "Redeem Team", defeated Spain in the gold medal game, finishing the tournament undefeated and winning the gold medal for the first time since 2000, while Argentina, the defending Olympic champions who lost to the U.S. in the semifinals, won the bronze medal.

Who won the Olympics NBA? ›

The U.S. men's basketball team full of NBA superstars took home its fifth consecutive Olympic gold with a 98-87 win over host country France.

How did France do in the last Olympics? ›

The Americans were jubilant at the finish, having won the title for a 10th time, and the French were crestfallen, but a crushed atmosphere soon turned to cheers of support. As the silver medals were awarded to France, the home crowd burst into a rousing rendition final rendition of La Marseillaise.

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